Key Takeaways:
Muscle growth is a SLOW process. Do not expect rapid changes in your physique within the first month of strength training!
On average, beginners can expect to gain 1 to 8.5 lbs of fat-free mass (FFM, which includes the weight of everything in your body, except fat) in their first 6 months of resistance training based on recent studies. Other experts in the field will report average gains in muscle mass between 4-7 lbs in the first 12 weeks of resistance training.
You can expect to make rapid gains in strength (anywhere from an 11 to 49% increase in strength) within your first 6 months of starting a resistance training program. Lifting multiple times per week (i.e., more than once per week) is probably a good idea to build strength for multi-joint movements like squatting, pressing, pulling, and hinging.
In the long term, expect your rate of progress to slow down over time. The rate of progress in the long term is different for everyone and there’s no real way to find out your true limit or predict how strong/how much muscle you’ll gain without lifting consistently for a long period of time.
Our group classes, personal training options, and expert coaches will help measure your strength and muscle growth over time through regular testing to ensure that you’re meeting your goals!
One of the most important things you can do to ensure success in your fitness journey is setting realistic expectations. Often, those who are first starting to exercise base their goals off the extremes of body composition or strength they see in movies, TV, social media, and magazines. Further, the common belief is that those physiques and levels of performance are achievable in a relatively short period of time. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of people (unless you’re taking anabolic steroids), this is far from the case. Having unrealistic expectations can lead individuals to set unrealistic goals which can make failure much more likely, deter positive momentum, impair long-term habit formation, and lead individuals to excessively restrict calories and perform unnecessarily high amounts of exercise which may result in burnout, injury, and failure to adhere to the exercise program.
Instead, if we set up our exercise program with realistic goals, this can lead to the prescription of a more sustainable exercise program which can build positive momentum and long-term adherence to exercise. That said, what are realistic goals for beginners looking to build muscle, increase strength, and lose body fat?
How Much Muscle Can You Expect to Build?
If an influencer or exercise program is promising that you’ll pack on 10 or more pounds of muscle in a month or less, they are most likely lying or exaggerating to lure you in. If we look at the evidence1, the reality is that in the first 4-5 weeks of starting a full-body resistance training program for 2-3 times per week, most people gain 0.9 to 1.9 kg (or, for our metric-system deniers, ~ 2 to 4 lbs) of fat-free mass (FFM), which includes the weight of bone, muscle mass, water, organ tissue, and connective tissue (see table 1). If we expand out to 7-12 weeks, the gains in fat-free mass (FFM) seem to be between 0 to 3.90 kg (or ~ 0 to 8.59 lbs), see table 2. And finally, if we look around the 4-6-month mark, most people seem to gain between 0.46 to 3.4 kg of FFM (or ~ 1 to 7.5 lbs) following a full-body resistance training program 2-4 times per week, see table 3. Wide ranges in FFM are reported here due to individual genetic differences, differences in resistance training protocols, and differences in nutrition practices between different participants. However, this data still coincides with other expert recommendations, from individuals like Dr. Stuart Phillips at McMaster University, that you should expect to gain between ~4-7 lbs of lean body mass within the first 12 weeks of starting a resistance training program.3 Further, more (but not all) of our energy within the first ~ 3 weeks of starting a resistance training program goes towards repairing damaged muscle, not necessarily building muscle. Once the body adapts to the program and muscle damage is reduced, the body can shift more of its energy towards building muscle tissue.2 Thus, on average, you’re probably not going to see substantial visual changes in your physique within the first month of resistance training.Remember, these are AVERAGES and there are always exceptions to the rule, but realistic expectations should be based on averages, not genetic outliers. Unfortunately, major results concerning muscle growth will most likely take time and we need to take that into account when setting goals for ourselves and others.
Study | Fat-Free Mass (FFM) gained in kg | | Weeks | | Training Frequency |
Arazi et al. (2015) |
| 4 | 3 |
Arciero et al. (2001) |
| 4 | 3 |
Arciero et al. (2001) |
| 4 | 3 |
Huso et al. (2002) |
| 4 | 3 |
Yan et al. (2016) |
| 5 | 2 |
Yan et al. (2016) |
| 5 | 2 |
Yan et al. (2016) |
| 5 | 2 |
Yan et al. (2016) |
| 5 | 2 |
Table 1: Average amount of Fat-Free Mass (FFM) gained in 4-5 weeks in untrained lifters following a full-body resistance training program 2-3 times per week in studies from Benito et al. (2020).1
Study | Fat-Free Mass (FFM) gained in kg | | Weeks | | Training Frequency (times per week) |
Shelmadine et al. (2009) |
| 7 | 4 |
Alvehus et al. (2014) |
| 8 | 2-4 |
Gallagher et al. (2000) |
| 8 | 3 |
Gallagher et al. (2000) |
| 8 | 3 |
Ghahramanloo et al. (2009) |
| 8 | 3 |
Hong et al. (2014) |
| 8 | 3 |
Hong et al. (2014) |
| 8 | 3 |
Zamani et al. (2017) |
| 8 | 3 |
Zamani et al. (2017) |
| 8 | 3 |
Zamani et al. (2017) |
| 8 | 3 |
Thorstensson et al. (1976) |
| 8 | 3 |
Hu et al. (2009) |
| 10 | 2-3 |
McCarthy et al. (1995) |
| 10 | 3 |
Perez-Gomez et al. (2013) |
| 10 | N/A |
Abe et al. (2000) |
| 12 | 3 |
Kramer et al. (2009) |
| 12 | 3 |
Jang et al. (2017) |
| 12 | 3 |
Snijders et al. (2015) |
| 12 | 3 |
Table 2: Average amount of Fat-Free Mass (FFM) gained in 7-12 weeks in untrained lifters following a full-body resistance training program 2-4 times per week in studies from Benito et al. (2020).1
Study | Mass Gained in kg | | Weeks | | Frequency |
Chromiak et al. (2004) |
| 18 | 4 |
Chromiak et al. (2004) |
| 15 | 4 |
Lemmer et al. (2001) |
| 24 | 3 |
Radaelli et al. (2015) |
| 24 | 3 |
Radaelli et al. (2015) |
| 24 | 3 |
Radaelli et al. (2015) |
| 24 | 3 |
Schumann et al. (2014) |
| 24 | 2-3 |
Spence et al. (2011) |
| 24 | 3 |
Table 3: Average amount of Fat-Free Mass (FFM) gained in 15-24 weeks in untrained lifters following a full-body resistance training program 2-4 times per week in studies from Benito et al. (2020).1
How Much Can You Expect to Increase Strength?
As mentioned in our prior article, you will make rapid progress in strength within the first ~ 12 weeks as a beginner due to neuromotor adaptations and motor learning (i.e., practicing the movement). Motor learning will allow different muscles to coordinate themselves in synchrony to produce force and it will also allow the individual to recruit higher threshold motor units (i.e., the motor neuron and muscle fiber it innervates) that are capable of producing higher degrees of force. It’s difficult to give a strict percentage of how much you can expect to progress in strength due to varying protocols in the number of sets, frequency, and intensity in most studies conducted on this topic. Not to mention, the type of exercise, your genetics, and your prior experience with lifting can all affect how quickly you gain strength as well.
That said, most people are focused on how many days they need to be in the gym per week to see progress, so in table 4 below I’ve pulled studies from a recent systematic review and meta-analysis 4 on how frequently you need to lift to see an increase in strength. For those who are interested, the current data is summarized below with respect to the percentage changes one can expect to see in their strength if they’re training 1, 2, 3 or sometimes 4 times per week from various papers. In general, when volume (i.e. the number of sets) is the same between different training frequencies, there seems to be no difference in the first ~ 6 months on strength. In other words, you can do 12 sets per muscle group once per week, 6 sets per muscle group twice per week, 4 sets per muscle group three times per week, or 3 sets per muscle group four times per week, and your gains in strength may be similar. As you become more experienced, increasing training frequency is probably of benefit since it helps distribute your training volume throughout the week and allows you to perform higher quality sets, this is why we recommend beginners to slowly shift from lifting 1x/week to 2-3x/week.
Training with a higher frequency also may help when you’re performing multi-joint movements like squatting variations, pressing variations, pulling variations, and hinge variations (which you should prioritize as a beginner) because these movements have higher coordination demands.
That said, as a beginner, you can expect to see a ~ 11 to 49% increase in strength from baseline in your first 6 months of strength training (depending on the type of exercise, number of sets, age, duration of lifting, and prior training history). Again, these are wide ranges because the nature of each study is different. But, these ranges are still very much within the realm of realistic expectations for most people. However, it’s probably not realistic to double your strength in the first 6 months of training, unless you’re severely deconditioned or have excellent genetics. Hopefully, giving you these ranges allows you to develop a realistic goal based on your individual circumstances!
Study | Exercise Tested | Average % Strength Increase | Weeks | Training Frequency (times per week) |
Candow et al. (2007) | 1RM Bench Press and 1RM Squat | Bench = 22-30% Squat = 28% | 6 weeks | 1 or 2 times per week (no difference bw groups) |
Benton et al. (2011) | 1RM Chest Press and 1RM Leg Press | Chest Press: 34% Leg Press: 29% (3x/week group), 49% (4x/week group) | 8 weeks | 3 or 4 times per week |
Fernández-Lezaun et al. (2017) | 1RM Leg Press | 1x/week: 11% (men), 17% (women) 2x/week: 9% (men, not significant), 17% (women) 3x/week: 15% (men), 21% (women) | 24 weeks | 1, 2, or 3 times per week |
Gentil et al. (2015) | Isokinetic Dynamometer Peak Torque of Elbow Flexors | 6.66-12.85% | 10 weeks | 1 or 2 times per week (no difference bw groups) |
Fisher et al. (2013) | 1RM of leg press, knee extension, hamstring curl, bicep curl, chest press, and shoulder press | Leg Press: 21.5% Chest Press: 18.8% *only including leg pres ki s and chest press to allow comparisons bw papers, within group changes averaged bw groups | 16 weeks | 1, 2, or 3 times per week (no difference bw groups) |
Arazi & Asadi (2011) | 1RM Bench Press and 1RM Leg Press | Bench Press: 11.77% Leg Press: 7.27% *within group changes averaged bw groups | 8 weeks | 1, 2, or 3 times per week (no difference bw groups) |
Carroll et al. (1998) | 1RM Squat | Squat: 21.7-32.17% | 6 to 9 weeks | 2 or 3 times per week (no difference bw groups) |
DiFrancisco-Donoghue et al. (2006) | 1RM Leg Press *other exercises were tested, but to allow comparisons bw papers, we’ll only look at leg press | Leg Press: 29.8-40% | 9 weeks | 1 or 2 times per week (no difference bw groups) |
Taaffe et al. (1999) | 1RM Bench Press and 1RM Leg Press | Bench Press: 25% Leg Press: 26.94% | 24 weeks | 1, 2, or 3 times per week (no difference bw groups) |
Table 4: Average amount of strength gained in 6-24 weeks in untrained lifters following various resistance training programs 1-4 times per week in studies from Grgic et al. (2018).4
Where Do I Go From Here? And What About the Long-Term?
As you progress throughout your lifting career, your progress will inherently slow down due to the genetic limits on how much muscle you can grow and how strong your muscles can actually get. A 10-year analysis of upper body strength in elite professional rugby league players showed a strength gain of ~22-23% across a 10-year training period. Most of their gains in strength fell within the first four years of training and the rate of strength gains slowly reduced over time probably due to genetic limitations and programming differences. This was a sample of 6 individuals, so take this number with a grain of salt.10 A 15-year analysis of strength outcomes for 1897 athletes in the sport of powerlifting *tends* to support this as well. Stronger male powerlifters (who have presumably been lifting for a longer period of time) have approximately half the rate of strength progress per day compared to their less strong counterparts. The same, however, is not true for female powerlifters.5 This is probably due to the design of the study where powerlifters were separated and analyzed by strength differences but not by training status (i.e., how long they’ve actually been training). It’s entirely possible that a strong, well-trained individual suddenly decided to compete in powerlifting and, thus, their starting point and “room to grow” would be inherently limited by their prior training history.
For muscle growth, the upper limit of what’s attainable naturally is still unknown! However, we can make some educated guesses about what’s likely to be attainable naturally for most people in the long term based on normative data. Commonly, fat-free mass index (FFMI, calculated by dividing the fat-free mass of an individual by their height squared) is used to calculate the fat-free mass (i.e., bone, muscle mass, water, organ tissue, and connective tissue) of an individual and compare that value across individuals of different heights to get a normal range of FFMI values. We know that untrained individuals (ages 18-98 years old) have an average FFMI of 19.1 1.4 kg/m2 (males) and 15.9 1.3 kg/m2 (females).6 We also know that individuals that have extensive resistance training experience (e.g., collegiate athletes and natural bodybuilders) probably have an average FFMI of anywhere between 20.19 to 25.29 kg/m2 (males) and 16.15 to 20.05 kg/m2 (females).7, 8 It was once thought that it was not possible to exceed 25 kg/m2, but more recent normative data seems to refute that notion.7, 9 There have been studies finding collegiate athletes to have as high as a 31.7 kg/m2 (males) and 25.8 kg/m2 (females) and this might not even be the natural limit because these athletes aren’t specifically training to increase their FFM.7 They’re just trying to get better at their respective sports.
That said, let’s put this in more practical terms…..
If you’re a male with an average height of 5’9” (1.75 m) and you start with an average FFMI of 19.1 kg/m2, that means you have 58.2 kg of fat-free mass (FFM). You can expect to get to a FFMI of 20.19 to 25.29 kg/m2, which means you’ll gain anywhere between 3.63 to 19.25 kg (i.e., 8 to 42.5 lbs) of FFM throughout your lifting career.
If you’re a female with an average height of 5’4” (1.63 m) and you start with an average FFMI of 15.9 kg/m2, that means you have 42.24 kg of fat-free mass (FFM). You can expect to get to a FFMI of 16.15 to 20.05 kg/m2, which means you’ll gain anywhere between 0.66 to 11.03 kg (i.e., 1.45 to 24.3 lbs) of FFM throughout your lifting career.
These are wide ranges because there are SO many individual differences, training practices, nutrition practices, societal factors, and genetic differences influencing these outcomes!
We can discuss the upper limits of what research has found all day. But the key point is this: the rate of progress in the long term is different for everyone and there’s no real way to find out your true limit or predict how strong/how much muscle you’ll gain without lifting consistently for a long period of time. My advice is this: it’s probably better to set shorter-term, achievable goals first to see how you respond to lifting. When you have a better idea of how you respond and adapt to training, that will ultimately help you set better and more realistic long-term goals. Again, it is extremely important to start with goals that are realistic and manageable for you because the ultimate goal is to build long-term habits that can be adhered to even if there are other physical, social, or psychological stressors going on in your life that might deter you from being consistent.
References:
Benito PJ, Cupeiro R, Ramos-Campo DJ, Alcaraz PE, Rubio-Arias JÁ. A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Resistance Training on Whole-Body Muscle Growth in Healthy Adult Males. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(4):1285. Published 2020 Feb 17. doi:10.3390/ijerph17041285
Damas F, Phillips SM, Libardi CA, et al. Resistance training-induced changes in integrated myofibrillar protein synthesis are related to hypertrophy only after attenuation of muscle damage. J Physiol. 2016;594(18):5209-5222. doi:10.1113/JP272472
https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a19515623/how-much-muscle-can-you-gain/
Grgic J, Schoenfeld BJ, Davies TB, Lazinica B, Krieger JW, Pedisic Z. Effect of Resistance Training Frequency on Gains in Muscular Strength: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Sports Med. 2018;48(5):1207-1220. doi:10.1007/s40279-018-0872-x
Latella C, Teo WP, Spathis J, van den Hoek D. Long-Term Strength Adaptation: A 15-Year Analysis of Powerlifting Athletes. J Strength Cond Res. 2020;34(9):2412-2418. doi:10.1519/JSC.0000000000003657
Schutz Y, Kyle UU, Pichard C. Fat-free mass index and fat mass index percentiles in Caucasians aged 18-98 y. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord. 2002;26(7):953-960. doi:10.1038/sj.ijo.0802037
Jagim AR, Harty PS, Jones MT, et al. Fat-Free Mass Index in Sport: Normative Profiles and Applications for Collegiate Athletes. J Strength Cond Res. 2024;38(9):1687-1693. doi:10.1519/JSC.0000000000004864
Chappell AJ, Simper T, Barker ME. Nutritional strategies of high level natural bodybuilders during competition preparation. J Int Soc Sports Nutr. 2018;15:4. Published 2018 Jan 15. doi:10.1186/s12970-018-0209-z
Kouri EM, Pope HG Jr, Katz DL, Oliva P. Fat-free mass index in users and nonusers of anabolic-androgenic steroids. Clin J Sport Med. 1995;5(4):223-228. doi:10.1097/00042752-199510000-00003
Baker DG. 10-year changes in upper body strength and power in elite professional rugby league players--the effect of training age, stage, and content. J Strength Cond Res. 2013;27(2):285-292. doi:10.1519/JSC.0b013e318270fc6b